Oil supply expected to grow faster than demand, says consultancy

The IEA, on June 17, released its Medium-Term Oil Market Report. Rystad Energy, an independent oil and gas consulting group, has compared the revised IEA demand outlook with its own supply estimates derived from its global upstream database, UCube. The estimates are based on Rystad’s bottom-up analysis of 30,000 fields and 2,500 oil companies in 150 countries.

Analysis shows that oil markets have gradually been tightening over the last two years, while the outlook indicates a possible inflection point in early 2015 and an increasing downward pressure on oil prices for the coming two to three years.

The recent geopolitical outages of oil production from the Middle East and North Africa have, until now, been perfectly balanced by the increased supply of unconventional tight oil from the U.S. This predicted easing of the oil markets is partly driven by an assumption of gradual return over the next two years of oil from Libya, Iran, Iraq and Sudan, while U.S. drillers are continuing their activities with unchanged intensity and increased efficiency.

Rystad Energy now forecasts North American tight liquids production to pass 10 million bbl before 2020, making the region a net exporter of seaborne crude and petroleum products within three years.

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